Analysts and market commentators think we could see some more pain in bitcoin before we see further gains.

Bitcoin’s holding on to $63,000, having regained that level after briefly dipping to $61,000 overnight. 

Ether (ETH) also saw a brief decline overnight but has since regained the $3,300 level, according to data from Coinbase.

KuCoin’s token, KCS, was up 12.3% to $14 at time of publication, followed closely by memecoin PEPE which is up 12%. Starknet’s STRK is up 9.4%.

Dogwifhat is down 12% Wednesday morning. Both Avalanche’s AVAX and Aptos APT were down nearly 7%.

Hope for an ether ETF dwindles

It’s not looking great for ether ETF approval by May, according to experts. 

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart lowered his expectations for approval because the “SEC hasn’t engaged with issuers on Ethereum specifics.” He told Blockworks in January that he believed there was a 60% chance that the ETFs could be approved so soon after the bitcoin ETFs. 

The Securities and Exchange Commission delayed the decision on the proposed ETFs from Ark 21Shares and Hashdex. The delays were expected, and the SEC is also expected to delay the Grayscale, and VanEck applications. 

Despite the waning hope for a May approval, some issuers are updating their filings to add language around staking. Ark 21Shares first added in the language earlier this year. Fidelity added staking earlier this week in an updated filing and — despite the delays Tuesday — Grayscale also added in staking language.

Market snapshot

Analysts and market commentators think we could see some more pain in bitcoin before we see further gains. 

The reason? Uncertainty caused by the upcoming Bitcoin halving. 

Mikkel Morch, founder of ARK36, said investors “need to acknowledge the volatility surrounding the upcoming Bitcoin halving event.”

“The shutdown of inefficient miners post-halving could lead to a significant supply tightening, potentially laying the groundwork for a bullish trajectory both shorter and longer-term,” Morch added. “With more bitcoin retracements potentially looming and historical patterns indicating potential turbulence, we advise investors to tread carefully while exploring opportunities amid the uncharted territory of the 2024 halving.”

The halving — only the fourth in the history of Bitcoin — is expected to happen in mid-April. 

As Blockworks previously reported, this event is already looking different from the other halvings due to the approval — and success so far — of the bitcoin ETFs and the fact that bitcoin hit an all-time high ahead of the halving. Bitcoin only hit all-time highs in the months after the previous halvings. 

But enough about bitcoin, let’s take a look at the broader market.

• Coinbase International hit new all-time highs with $4.4 billion in 24-hour notional trading volume and $30 billion in 30-day notional trading volume.
• Bitcoin miner Riot gained 4% in early Wednesday trading.
• Coinbase and Marathon managed to shake off some selling as well.
• Microstrategy continues to face pressure, down over 1% to around $1,400 a share.

Source: Katherine Ross – blockworks.co