• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said the U.S. election outcome, the economy and no major crypto industry surprises are the three conditions required to see a bitcoin rally above $80,000 in Q4.
• However, a “full-on melt-up” to $100,000 in just a few months would require a broader crypto rally to juice market sentiment, he said.

Matt Hougan, CIO at crypto asset manager Bitwise, said the U.S. election outcome, the economy and no major crypto industry surprises are the three primary factors impacting the chances of a bitcoin “melt-up” above $80,000 this quarter.

At the end of 2023, Bitwise predicted bitcoin would double from $42,400 at the time to above $80,000 by the end of this year, citing spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund approvals in the U.S. and Bitcoin’s fourth halving event as catalysts.

In a memo to clients on Wednesday, while Hougan still stands by the prediction, on the U.S. election front, he said it would require anything but a Democratic sweep. The Bitwise CIO argued that while most people see the election as a binary outcome, with pro-crypto Donald Trump good for the industry and Kamala Harris bad, and a Republican win “undoubtedly” bodes well, the situation is more nuanced on the Democratic side.

“The Democratic Party has disparate views on crypto, from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) 'Anti-Crypto Army' to Representative Ritchie Torres’ (D-N.Y.) deep support. The problem of the past four years is that the Warren wing has controlled policy and agency appointments, and that has created a hostile environment for the sector,” Hougan said.

“To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t need politicians. It just needs them to get out of the way. And barring a Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress and the White House, I suspect they will, with the Democrats taking a more neutral approach to the industry,” he added.

The odds of a Democratic sweep on the decentralized predictions platform Polymarket are 20% compared to 33% for a Republican sweep. The platform currently shows 53% odds of a Trump presidential victory, a 73% chance of a Republican-controlled Senate and a 62% chance of a Democratic House, Hougan noted.

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein also agreed on Wednesday that bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in the $80,000 to $90,000 range if Donald Trump wins the U.S. election next month.

On the economy, the Bitwise CIO suggested two further rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by year-end and additional fiscal stimulus from China were further conditions required for a bitcoin rally.

“The number one reason people are attracted to bitcoin is simple: You can’t trust the government with money,” Hougan argued. “If it gets both, I suspect we will get our Q4 rally. If we don’t, I think the disappointment could weigh on the market.”

The final requirement for bitcoin to trade above $80,000 this year is a period of no major surprises within the crypto industry, according to the analyst. “No major hacks. No massive new lawsuits. No previously locked coins suddenly coming to market,” he said.

Crypto 'animal spirits' are in short supply but altcoins could help

 doesn't need Ethereum, Solana, or novel altcoins for its long-term success.” However, a “full-on melt-up” to $100,000 in just a few months would require pro-crypto sentiment to sweep the market, he added.

The crypto "animal spirits" have been in short supply this year outside of bitcoin, he continued. However, strong and sustained momentum in areas like stablecoin assets under management and new high-throughput blockchains like Sui, Aptos and Monad would bolster the melt-up case, Hougan said.

It's important to remember bitcoin has already had a pretty good year — up 47.5% — with the spot Bitcoin ETFs becoming the best-performing ETF launches in history, significant institutional adoption and bitcoin entering the political mainstream, the Bitwise CIO added. This suggests that regardless of what happens this year, bitcoin is heading for $80,000 and much more in 2025, he concluded.

Written by James Hunt for theblock.co